Newsletter July 2016
Equity overview - Domestic & Global Markets
U.S. stocks fared better than international stocks following Britain’s announcement on leaving the E.U. U.S. equity markets were resilient once the surprise of Brexit unfolded, with the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index both positive for the year.
Domestic equities are more insulated from global developments and any other major equity markets since American companies generate 70% of the revenues from the United States. Japanese companies generate 50% from within their economy only and European companies generating a mere 49% from Europe itself.
U.S. equities are considered attractive relative to negative yielding government bonds in Asia and parts of Europe, even as the U.S. 10-year note finished below 1.5% in June. The S&P 500 index currently carries 60% of its stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 10-year treasury bond yield.
The primary British equity index, the FTSE 100, tumbled in June following the Brexit vote. Companies within the index generate about 75% of their revenues outside the U.K., with many maintaining contracts and arrangements with other companies based in other E.U. countries. Since the actual extraction of Britain from the E.U. may take years, decisions for capital spending and expansion by European companies may be hindered.
Certain equity sectors are becoming increasingly sensitive to what the presidential candidates are proposing. Concerns lie with sectors where newly enacted regulatory policy can inhibit growth and profits. Other sectors are being adversely affected by low rates, such as banks whose earnings are hindered, since low rates limit the amount of profits they can earn as deposits fall and loan rates drop.
The Department of Labor reported that average hourly earnings grew by 2.5% over the past year, thus placing pressure on corporate earnings as wages move up. Many analysts believe that wages will continue to increase as unemployment rates remain below 5%, enticing companies to retain performing workers and paying them more.
Sources: Department of Labor, S&P, Bloomberg